Best Bets for MLS Week 7

Match- Charlotte FC hosts Nashville SC

MLS Week 7 starts with a rivalry matchup of two relatively new southeastern opponents, Charlotte FC and Nashville SC. This will be the 2:30 PM ET matinee, which should draw plenty of eyes and live fans. Lock in a tough home field advantage for Charlotte, who are already boasting an impressive 3-0 home start.  

Last week, Charlotte defender Andrew Privett was suspended for a red card he earned the previous weekend. In predictable fashion, Charlotte gave up 2 goals for the first time in 5 games. I consider this weekend’s matchup a prime chance for a restore form, with a return to their preferred backline and a return to their home arena.

Pick- Charlotte FC -105

Not only does Charlotte have a huge home field advantage, they are playing a mostly unchallenged Nashville SC.  Nashville has exploded for goals recently, but against much lesser opponents.  Nashville had an impressive win against Philadelphia, but otherwise beat Montreal and Portland, lost to Red Bull and Cincinnati, and drew the New England Revolution (ouch).

Charlotte’s moneline at near-even money is the first play of the week. 

Match- Philadelphia Union host Orlando City

MLS Week 7 also features what I would consider a fun match when the Philadelphia Union host Orlando City.  Philly has 4 wins and 3 losses, while Orlando has 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. 

While Philadelphia has a decent home advantage, Orlando has been too unpredictable to wager on a win or a loss.  Instead, I will be playing the goals total, which has been successful for both sides. 

Pick- Over 3.5 Goals +150

So far this season, I’ve had success picking over bets in what I think are going to be high scoring matches.  This week, Philadelphia hosts Orlando in what could be the shootout of the week. 

Let’s take a look at the math.  Through the first 6 matches of the season, the Philadelphia Union have seen 21 goals, while Orlando has seen 27 goals. That comes out to an average of 4 goals per match.  In their first meeting, a February match in Orlando, Philly won by a scoring of 4 to 2.  That gives me some confidence in taking the total up to 3.5 goals and playing the over at +150.  

Match- NYCFC hosts Minnesota United

This Sunday at 3:00 PM ET, New York City FC will host Minnesota United at Yankee Stadium; it is a rare matchup that hasn’t been played since 2023.  White NYCFC is coming off of a crazy 4-3 loss in Atlanta, Minnesota faced Real Salt Lake and won predictably by a 2-0 scoreline. 

This season, NYCFC is 2-0 at home (and they were 11-3-5 in 2024).  By comparison, on the road, Minnesota United is 1-1-1 with draws at Sporting KC and a loss to LAFC (and went 8-4-7 last season). When one team is good at home, and the other is weak on the road, we know which team gets the hard lean.

Pick- NYCFC +110

This will only be the 3rd match NYCFC plays at home; they won each other match by a 2-1 scoreline.  I favor NYCFC heavily here, where everything is pointing their way.  Yankee baseball is back, which means the pitcher’s mound will be at full height and the grass will be gross.  NYCFC knows how to play in a baseball stadium, has a team equipped to provoke chaos, and is still at +110 moneyline?

Sign me up. 

Match- Inter Miami hosts Toronto FC

The best team in MLS will be playing the worst team in MLS this week. One team has Messi.  The other has a messy Italian who is causing roster lock for our friendly neighbors up north. 

Pick- Inter Miami & O2.5 Goals -114

Inter Miami are going to win this game so hard, they are -250 moneyline.  I can’t bet on that, but I can pair it with the over of 2.5 goals at -114, a sneaky good price.  

Toronto is seeing 18 goals in 6 matches, averaging 3 goals per game.  Only 2, a 2-0 loss to FC Cincinnati and a 0-0 draw with Vancouver, saw less than 3 goals.  Miami is right in line with the high goal totals; they have seen 16 goals in 5 matches, or just over 3 goals per game.  Their only game under 3 goals was a 1-0 win over Charlotte.

Don’t overthink things, and finish MLS Week 7 with a strong bet on Inter Miami. 

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