Best Bets for MLS Week 10

FC Cincinnati hosts Sporting KC

My MLS Week 10 betting article starts with FC Cincinnati, who will host Sporting KC.  FC Cincinnati are 3-1-0 at home and 3-0-2 on the road, combining for 6 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses.  Sporting KC, meanwhile, have 2 wins in 3 matches, bringing their season total to 2-1-6, while turning a corner on their early season woes.  

Pick- FC Cincinnati & Over 1.5 Goals -125

With 4 straight wins, FC Cincinnati are the undisputed home favorite for this one, where their outright odds are sitting near -170. For my first bet, I need to pair FC Cincinnati with a small total of under 1.5 goals, bringing the parlay up to -125.

By the Numbers

FC Cincinnati have scored 2 goals at home twice this season, while failing to do so against the New York Red Bulls and the New England Revolution.  Those two defenses, however, have only given up 16 goals in 18 games between them.  For comparison, Sporting KC have allowed 19 goals just by themselves. 

I like Cincy, their team total over 1.5, but the best odds I can find (that the sportsbooks will allow) is the home favorite paired with a small over at -125. 

Match- Charlotte FC hosts the New England Revolution

Another week 10 matchup where I have a bet is Charlotte FC hosting the New England Revolution. Charlotte are undefeated at home with a 5-0-0 record, while the Revs are 1-1-2 on the road.  This could be a simple “good team vs. bad team” handicap, but I needed to find the right numbers to make something work.  

Pick- Charlotte & U4.5 +103

Taking a high goal total to pair with the heavy home favorite is a strategy worth looking into. The only question is, will the match go over 4.5 goals? 

My instinct would tell me that this 4.5 goal total is an unapproachable number.  Using my betting model to project home and away xG, my numbers also say “no.” 

By the Numbers

While New England have been poor, their defense has actually played well.  They have only allowed 7 goals in 8 matches, and their goals against are similar for home and away games. 

Charlotte have only seen 1 match this season go over 4.5 goals, which was their win against the atrocious San Jose Earthquakes.  New England have only seen one game go over 2 goals, which was their 2-1 loss to NYCFC.   

The official play is a pair of what I consider safe plays- Charlotte FC to win and Under 4.5 total goals at +103 odds. 

Match- Red Bull NY hosts CF Montreal

This week, the New York Red Bulls will look to return to form after a few recent disappointing results.  While they lost 2-1 to DC United last week, they face another bottom-dweller in CF Montreal; these are games RBNY need to take advantage of with a win.  

Despite last week’s loss, RBNY are better at home this season, with a 3-1-1 record and +3 goal differential.  In fact, last week’s loss to DC United is their only home match where they did not score two times. 

Pick- RBNY & O1.5 +116

Teams playing as heavy home favorites usually leads to higher goal totals. All we need is to pair a home team win with an over of 1.5 goals to get plus money, +116 to be exact.  

By the Numbers

Montreal started this season with 2 away draws and 5 away losses, before a two game home stretch brought their season total to 0-3-6 record. They are allowing 1.71 goals per match on the road, which leads us to think the Red Bulls will win and score at least twice.  

Match- Houston Dynamo host Austin FC

MLS Week 10 has a Copa Tejas matchup, where Austin FC head to Houston to take on the Dynamo. Houston are looking to improve their 1-1-3 home record, while Austin are looking for their third road win of the season.  

Houston have scored 8 and conceded 14 this season, while Austin have 7 goals and 8 conceded.  While neither team has done much to inspire confidence, I think there is a nice play where we can pair the teams with a total for a nice play.  

Pick- Austin FC DC & U4.5 Goals -116

I like Austin FC on the double chance here for a few reasons.  Historically, Austin has done well against the Dynamo.  They have 7 wins and 4 losses, with none of their matchups since 2021 ending in a draw.  The double chance covers a bunch of likely possibilities in this matchup. 

Right now, on paper, Austin are also the better team.  We just saw Brandon Vazquez score his second of the season last week, and if he gets going this team will turn their lackluster offense around in a hurry.  

By the Numbers

My bet for MLS Week 10’s Copa Tejas matchup will be Austin win or draw & under 4.5 goals.  The goal total is a huge number; each team has only had 1 of their 9 matches go to 5 goals this year.  In fact, combined, they are seeing just over 2 goals per game on average.  

Low scoring games favor the away side, and I could see this match finish 1-0 or even 1-1 in a squeaker, either of which will see us cashing. 

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