Best Bets and Sportsbook Picks for MLS Matchday 5

As a reminder, The Designated Pundits go live on 8:00 PM ET every Thursday with our MLS picks show. This week, in MLS Matchday 5, we will go live at 8:00 PM ET on Friday, to avoid conflict with the USMNT vs Panama match.

Our results for this season are posted here, with a +11.07 unit positive results over four weeks.

Match- NY Red Bulls host Toronto FC

This week in MLS Matchday 5, the New York Red Bulls will host Toronto FC. The Red Bulls are 1-1-0 at home, having beaten Nashville and drawn Orlando City. Meanwhile, Toronto FC have a draw and two losses on the road, having played 3 of their first 4 matches of 2025 as visitors.

These two team’s couldn’t be in more different situations right now. After an MLS Cup Final appearance, RBNY restocked on offense and is employing a new 5 man backline which seems to be doing their high pressing style justice. In 4 matches this season, they have allowed only 3 goals. Toronto, on the other hand, returns a weak roster after being unable to unload Lorenzo Insigne this offseason. They have seen 16 total goals over 4 matches; Toronto scored 5 and conceded 10 goals in 2025.

Pick- RBNY & O1.5 Goals +105

In this match, I will be relying heavily on RBNY’s home advantage, while also favoring a small over of 1.5 goals. While the Red Bulls will be missing Carlos Coronel and Dennis Gjengaar on international duty, much of the rest of the team is ready to go. Toronto, with an already weak roster, will be missing forward Ola Brynhildsen, Deybi Flores, Richie Laryea, Jonathan Osorio, and Tyrese Spicer.

I would take the Red Bulls, but with odds around the -160 mark, I needed a “dance partner,” so to speak. With a small over of just 1.5 goals, I know the Red Bulls can cover on their own. If this game does happen to get higher scoring, we know all we need is a Red Bulls win after that second goal hits the net.

Match- St. Louis City hosts Philadelphia Union

This week, I am looking at teams that have important pieces on international duty. While many have younger players missing, there may be no team harder done by an international window than the Philadelphia Union. While their opponents, St. Louis City, have just two injuries and no international call-ups, Philadelphia will be without the services of 6 starters total.

It is not only the number of players missing for the Union that has me looking at St. Louis City, it is also their quality. Tai Baribo and Gazdag, who will be with Israel and Hungary, have combined for 7 of the team’s 11 goals. That accounts for roughly 64% of Philadelphia’s offensive production this season. Remembering that St. Louis City has allowed 0 goals in 4 matches to start 2025 (which includes two west coast trips to LA and San Diego) I think they are going to be looking for another clean sheet.

Pick- St. Louis City or Draw & Under 3.5 Goals

St. Louis City is on a two game win streak which includes a 3-0 away win against the Galaxy and a 1-0 home win vs the Seattle Sounders. This week they have a relatively short trip to Philadelphia, and I think they are looking to play Olof Mellberg’s style of defensive football.

Needing a pair to bring up the St. Louis City double chance (win or draw) odds, I added an under of 3.5 goals for +135.

No St. Louis City match has gone over 3 goals this season. While Philadelphia has broken that mark in 3 of 4 matches, I think their offense is slowed by the best defense they will face yet this season. This week, in MLS Matchday 5, I like all St. Louis City and under bets.

Match- Sporting KC hosts Los Angeles FC

In just a 12 minute span last week, Sporting KC scored 3 goals to draw Minnesota United. That draw prevented Sporting KC from a 0-4 start. They would have been 0-6, had you counted their CONCACAF Champions Cup losses from February. However unlikely, Minnesota United took their foot off the gas and let all 3 road points slip away. But does that mean we change our mind on the Wooden-Spoon-Favorite Sporting KC?

I think the odds on this match are too influenced by LAFC's last two matches; losses to Austin and Seattle. While they lost 1-0 in Austin, the Texas teams usually have a solid home advantage. In that match, LAFC arguably outplayed Austin and had 14 shots with 71% possession. In their loss to Seattle, they conceded 5 on only 1.69 expected goals, with 4 total goals in garbage time at the end of the match.

LAFC +125

LAFC is still miles better than Sporting KC. Without their star attacker Denis Bouanga, LAFC will be pairing the most exciting young player in MLS, David Martinez, with Cengiz Under, formerly of Roma, Marseille, and Fenerbahce. Don’t let a blip in LAFC’s season deter you from what should be a slam-dunk play. LAFC should have an easy win in MLS Matchday 5.

Match- Orlando City host DC United

Orlando City has a win, a draw, and 2 losses in their four matches this season, albeit against some tough competition. DC United have a win and 3 draws, and are unexpectedly one of the remaining undefeated teams in MLS.

While these teams have different starts this season, they have a few things in common. Both have seen goals scored; DC United has seen 11 total goals in 4 matches, while Orlando has seen 19 total goals. Both have seen a lot of matches with both teams scoring. In fact, of the 8 matches they have played combined in 2025, both teams have scored in 7 of those matches. Only one match, a 0-0 draw between DC United and Montreal, has seen under 2.5 goals. That match was also the only match where both teams did not score.

Pick- BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals -125

I don’t want to have to pick a winner here (although I lean Orlando) so I want to see goals scored. Combining the “Both Teams to Score” prop with the “Over 2.5 Goals” prop gives us a nice little -125 parlay.

I usually avoid parlays unless they look like this. I call them “game script” parlays, because instead of combining different teams or different outcomes, I am playing the game script of “lots of goals” and hoping everything else sorts itself out.

As always, i80 Sports suggests you check local laws before placing any sports wager. The odds you see here are from legal sports betting outlets in the state of NJ. It is your responsibility to know and to follow the law.

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